A Value-Based Strategy for Drafting a Dream Team
Analytics is not just for business. With football season approaching, let's explore our favorite data-driven draft strategy.
This analysis helps you draft your team using the Value Over Replacement (VOR) approach. VOR measures the value a player adds compared to the average player at their position, revealing the true scarcity value of players across different positions.
The VOR data is available in the app below. Continue reading for a detailed analysis of 2025's results and draft advice.
How to Find Maximum Value in Your Draft
The best way to approach a draft like this is to think of players like stocks. The goal is to pick players that others undervalue and maximize potential upside for bench players while minimizing risk for starters.
To accurately determine a player's value, we need to compare their projected points to the average player at the same position. We define an average player as: the player whose rank at a position matches the average number of players chosen at that position by pick 100.
After calculating each player's value, we can compare it to the average value at their position to determine the VOR. You can find a more detailed explanation of the VOR calculation and all other metrics used in the app in the documentation for the ffanalytics R package.
The VOR Insight: Quarterbacks Aren't Everything
VOR highlights the problem of focusing only on projected points when drafting. When looking at projected points, it is easy to think that a quarterback is the most valuable player. However, when we look at the 2025 VOR rankings, the story changes:
- Bijan Robinson (RB) - 182.2
- Saquon Barkley (RB) - 170.5
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) - 170.5
- Ja'Marr Chase (WR) - 158.3
- De'Von Achane (RB) - 148.1
- Christian McCaffrey (RB) - 143.6
- Josh Jacobs (RB) - 121.2
- Derrick Henry (RB) - 120.7
- Ashton Jeanty (RB) - 119.8
- Justin Jefferson (WR) - 119.0
The concentration of value in elite running backs this year makes early draft strategy more critical than ever. The draft order will be very important this season.
Draft Advice
1. Prioritize Elite Running Backs Early.
With the top 8 VOR slots dominated by RBs, you need to secure at least one elite back in the first two rounds.
2. Draft your starting lineup before any bench players.
For starters, target players with the highest VOR, a low-risk rating, and a high floor for projected points. For bench players, aim for players with the highest VOR and a high ceiling to maximize the potential upside (higher risk is ok for bench players).
3. Wait on Quarterbacks.
With even elite QBs like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson showing VOR values under 90, you can find tremendous value waiting until the middle rounds.
4. Target Elite Tight Ends.
If you can snag Bowers or McBride, the positional advantage is worth the investment.
5. Draft Defense and Kickers last (if at all).
They are less predictable and score fewer points.
We wish you all the best in your 2025 fantasy season! Please feel free to share this application with friends/competitors, and let us know if you have any feedback.
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